Immigration - Part 1

The political dynamics of a situation in free-fall

Over the past year, 100,000+ illegal immigrants who are mostly military-aged men have arrived [in New York City]. They cost sanctuary city taxpayers several hundred dollars a day each to house and feed, which will drive the city into a budgetary death spiral and force cuts on critical services like sanitation, education, and police. Greedy real estate owners hoover up government cash to house them, especially the historic Roosevelt Hotel which serves as the main processing center and is owned by Pakistan. America last means paying a foreign country to house illegals.

Yuri Bezmenov

We’re experiencing a novel situation in the United States: we are seeing an unprecedented level of movement across our Southern border. Something like 10 million estimated illegal immigrants have been encountered under the Biden administration. This doesn’t include immigrants who evade border patrol or overstay visas. In short: a lot of people have arrived in the United States in the past few years. We have no idea who they are or why they’re here (although most of them are doubtlessly here as economic migrants fleeing the poverty and crime in their own countries).

The Black Gate of Mordor, controlling all migrants and visitors, and standing as a notable security feature on the road from Mirkwood and the Misty Mountains to Barad-Dur

Something like 3 million new people arrive every year and our political system has proven itself completely unwilling to address the situation. I will be honest: I don’t know why this is. I’ve read the speculations: Democrats are hungry at the idea of millions of new voters at some point in the future, Republicans are inept and corrupt, corporations want an infusion of cheap labor, idealists want to help the poor.

Obviously all of these factors play into the government’s (non-)response but I don’t think they fully explain it. I suspect there are other dynamics playing out behind the scenes but I simply don’t know what they are. I doubt that we have accounted for all of the organizational incentives here is because political parties are self-interested and cynical organizations. Republicans continue to oppose abortion access in courts and legislatures because these moves satisfy certain committed activists and voters, not because the party is taking a moral stand. Individuals, movements, advocacy groups can take moral stands (although it’s odd that they rarely take moral stands which conflict with their own survival or interests) but political parties are too large and diffuse for that. Just as corporations are motivated solely by their perceptions of profit incentives, political parties are motivated by their perceptions of electoral and financial (generally the same thing) benefit. They are selfish and short-sighted organisms.

If I had to guess I would say that the Republicans are disorganized and distracted (as usual) and the issue has become too flagrant and politically radioactive for them to make ‘compromises’ with the Democrats. People are furious and capping border crossing at 5,000 per day simply won’t cut it at this point. A clear plurality of Americans now name ‘immigration’ as the top issue of concern, and that number is swelling quickly. The administration has the resources and legal authority to take action on immigration today. Naturally they would rather dangle impotent ‘compromises’ before the Republicans and hope that some of the political hurt can be transferred across the aisle through blame and obfuscation but this hasn’t worked. The Biden administration is inextricably tied to our border problems. President Trump’s administration saw a sharp and sustained decrease in immigration, while Biden’s has seen a historical surge. No amount of massaging data or crafting narratives will disguise that fact from voters, even politically disengaged ones. This is a problem.

Rather than arresting people or turning them away or creating more capacity for detention and asylum claim-review, the Biden administration is directing illegal immigrants to enter through ‘ports of entry’ (the RED areas on the graph) where they are processed, given preliminary documents, and then released. This acts as an effectively open border, since the waiting period for judicial review and administrative follow-up is now many years.

Encounters with MURDERERS and manslaughterers only, on an annual/administration basis

The Democrats are torn between their activists and their party interests and that division has led to a party which simply cannot move in a meaningful way to address such a massive and urgent problem, even as cities cry for help and poor black voters express outrage. There are two many educated and disconnected people in the media and corporate offices and non-profits and government agencies who have a visceral opposition to the idea of destitute, developing-world migrants being turned away or arrested. Unfortunately those voters seem unwilling to confront messy realities on many issues (crime, policing, mental healthcare, education)… and they are not the ones who pay the costs of millions of illegal immigrants. Those people wont be living in their communities or competing with them for jobs or stealing from their stores. They remain a nice idea for them, which allows them to feel good about themselves. For many (wealthier) people that is now the primary impulse which drives opinion-formation. For people on the margins nice ideas and intentions are irrelevant. Reality and survival are paramount. That is the real class difference in American society, and we see it deepen every day.

The Replacement Theory Narrative

One element that has been completely lacking in the immigration debate (that I have seen) is racism. The media narrative (only deployed by the most unhinged personalities on MSNBC at this point) is that Republicans don’t like brown people… therefore they’re mad about immigration! Viola. Xenophobia, and no further discussion or analysis is welcome or necessary.

This kind of reflexive demonization of half of the electorate has worn rather thin in recent years. I daresay this kind of impulse to simplify and moralize lies behind more loss of media credibility than any other single factor (although I’m not sure).

At the higher levels of information- and policy-generation we have the ‘Great Replacement Theory’ narrative. This involves the conflation of several different elements and their deliberate confusion, to discredit a plausible and probably (somewhat) valid policy goal (media distortion 101, in other words). White supremacists have alleged that Jewish manipulators and other elites have had a plan for decades to replace the white, working-class population base in the U.S. and across the West with more pliable (nonwhite) clients as a way to weaken and divide societies. THAT is the Great Replacement Theory,

There’s another idea, which is that internationalists want to move poor people to richer countries to benefit them economically and socially (a move that the UN and innumerable NGO’s explicitly support). People have noted that these migrations will have benefits for large corporate employers and, eventually (after some changes in voter eligibility and security laws) many of those people might become a new class of Left-leaning voter. Maybe not, but this is the central claim of many immigration critics on the Right. The former narrative is explicitly racist and conspiratorial. The latter makes logical inferences about collective political and economic incentives and correctly notes the existence of huge immigration trends. Can you see the difference between the two ideas? Apparently the media cannot.

The Cracks Begin to Show

This issue has become and will continue to be a disaster for the Democrats, unfolding in slow motion on a massive scale. I daresay that if the media wasn’t so determined to euphemize and suppress uncomfortable news and figures the polling damage would be even greater. This is the kind of issue that our intelligentsia hates: it’s not amenable to media control and distortion because, unlike carbon emissions or systemic racism, it’s real and really observable. Like inflation, the consequences of our national lethargy in securing our border are becoming plain to see for many, many Americans, regardless of which news channel plays in their living rooms. Migrants are straining state and city budgets, committing crimes, swallowing up shelter and policing resources… and soon they will be competing for jobs (only with the lower-class, however; data indicates that educated people tend to favor working class migration but have more opposition to immigrants who would compete with THEM).

Youtube is awash with special reports from ABC, CNBC, PBS about the housing, crime, and funding crises creating massive urban dysfunction. When even these networks are reporting on it you know it’s bad. How many specials have aired about the (related) crisis on the Southern border?

Every time illegal immigrants assault commuters, shoot at police, coordinate vast robbery schemes, rape citizens, or kill drivers while DUI the social cracks created by our inaction on this issue are highlighted. The media is trying to downplay these kinds of incidents but they unfortunately interact extremely poorly with our recent policy (in many cities) of releasing suspects without bail and issuing light or suspended sentences. People are noticing and the narrative has grown beyond the control of the media, which makes the elites extremely nervous

A tiny sampling (of thousands) of some migrant-related crimes and disorders from a single brief period in New York City:

Illegals beat up cops and fleeing the state after being released the next day by DA Alvin Bragg - one of them give two middle fingers to the cameras

Illegal stabbed to death by other migrants in shelter

Illegals fight each other in the Randall’s Island migrant camp, which was built on top of kids’ soccer fields. The few women are intentionally getting pregnant. so they can get upgraded to hotel rooms and have anchor babies

11 year-old girls raped by an illegal

Students forced back into remote learning because illegals are housed in their school’s gym

70+ Senegalese illegals found living in a basement and sleeping in shifts on bunk beds

Palestine protestors block all of the Lower Manhattan bridges and tunnels

Palestine rioters tear down American flags and disrupt Christmas festivities while attacking police

Palestine sympathizers rip off hostage posters

Daniel Penny arrested for subduing a mentally ill subway rider who threatened to stab others

Laken Riley’s illegal alien murderer Jose Ibarra was arrested in NYC for child endangerment but released by DA Alvin Bragg, just like the cop beaters

Yuri Bezmenov

COMING SOON: Immigration - Part 2

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