Those are very interesting predictions indeed. I'm sure WEF globalist fascists would manage to surprise us all again but still.
One question only - what do you base your predictions upon, just your analysis of current trends, or something more (from astrology to some insider information)?
Thanks for the comment! I use basic demographic and cultural trends. I try to come up with a short list of possibilities, and then I try to narrow down the options, keeping in mind chaos theory and the frequency of unpredictable events and inflection points.
Example: Ethiopia is the most populated landlocked country in the world. The president has made (vague) belligerent comments toward Eritrea / Somalia, which represent his two shortest routes to blue water (Eritrea being the best geographical choice). Eritrea has a formidable little military, but Somalia has more political support from the West. So, there are three general options in the next 5 years: no war, Ethiopia fights Eritrea, Ethiopia fights Somalia. Based on the fact that Ethiopia just ended a civil war I would guess there will be no war in the next 5 years... but war within 10. I predict that war will be against Eritrea and Ethiopia will win and try to limit the conflict. I would try to update my predictions: border incidents, military buildups (in Ethiopia-Eritrea CAN'T build its military any bigger!), military arrangements (Eritrea COULD sidle up next to China, which has a huge naval base in Djibouti, but Ethiopia already has close ties with China), etc. Trends, Bayesian analysis, intuition... and guessing.
I also try to keep my predictions large and general. Either the GOP would grow considerably in CA... or they wouldn't. It now appears that they will. If they're smart they'll focus on election reform first and foremost...
Oh, but you basically use thorough and scientific methods there, that's great and very professional of you, kudos! I used to make official mathematical prediction models based on multiple lines regression (based on past data too) but it could be done only with numerical data but I still understood everything you said and did.
Out of curiosity, what's your prediction for the war in Ukraine this year, would it finally end once Trump is sworn?
Isn’t amazing that many of the same people who complain about misinformation on social media sites like X and Facebook also assert the ridiculous notion that a man can become a woman. Is any statement more a prime example of misinformation than that piece of nonsense?
Those are very interesting predictions indeed. I'm sure WEF globalist fascists would manage to surprise us all again but still.
One question only - what do you base your predictions upon, just your analysis of current trends, or something more (from astrology to some insider information)?
Thanks for the comment! I use basic demographic and cultural trends. I try to come up with a short list of possibilities, and then I try to narrow down the options, keeping in mind chaos theory and the frequency of unpredictable events and inflection points.
Example: Ethiopia is the most populated landlocked country in the world. The president has made (vague) belligerent comments toward Eritrea / Somalia, which represent his two shortest routes to blue water (Eritrea being the best geographical choice). Eritrea has a formidable little military, but Somalia has more political support from the West. So, there are three general options in the next 5 years: no war, Ethiopia fights Eritrea, Ethiopia fights Somalia. Based on the fact that Ethiopia just ended a civil war I would guess there will be no war in the next 5 years... but war within 10. I predict that war will be against Eritrea and Ethiopia will win and try to limit the conflict. I would try to update my predictions: border incidents, military buildups (in Ethiopia-Eritrea CAN'T build its military any bigger!), military arrangements (Eritrea COULD sidle up next to China, which has a huge naval base in Djibouti, but Ethiopia already has close ties with China), etc. Trends, Bayesian analysis, intuition... and guessing.
I also try to keep my predictions large and general. Either the GOP would grow considerably in CA... or they wouldn't. It now appears that they will. If they're smart they'll focus on election reform first and foremost...
Oh, but you basically use thorough and scientific methods there, that's great and very professional of you, kudos! I used to make official mathematical prediction models based on multiple lines regression (based on past data too) but it could be done only with numerical data but I still understood everything you said and did.
Out of curiosity, what's your prediction for the war in Ukraine this year, would it finally end once Trump is sworn?
Isn’t amazing that many of the same people who complain about misinformation on social media sites like X and Facebook also assert the ridiculous notion that a man can become a woman. Is any statement more a prime example of misinformation than that piece of nonsense?